A political earthquake in New Jersey

The county line ballot system is struck down.

(photo above from the New York Times story)

In the repair of democracy, every state has at least one “pivot point” where effort, properly applied, leads to the most political change. In New Jersey, that pivot point just turned with a decision in a federal voting rights case. (Note: I was an expert witness in this lawsuit.)

In the great majority of legislative and Congressional districts across the nation, the general election is not competitive. As a result, the only election that matters is the primary. In New Jersey, the winner of the primary election is essentially predetermined by a curious feature of ballot design called the “county line.”

In this design, the eye is drawn toward the column on the left. Cognitively, this design makes names in that first column the easiest choice - a heuristic that gives endorsed candidates an unearned bonus of 17 points over what they get even above the party endorsement.

In 2018, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez won his re-nomination primary over challenger Lisa McCormick by a 62%-38% margin. But in counties where he did not appear on the county line, he lost by a 54%-46% margin. But for the county line, New Jersey might have had a different junior senator for the last five and a half years.

Statistical evidence played a central role in this case. The county-line ballot design led to election results that are astronomically unlikely to have arisen by chance. For non-incumbents, the odds are 5 million to 1 against getting such an advantage by chance if there were no county-line design.

From the decision:

Driven by this evidence and his legal reasoning, Judge Quraishi issued a preliminary injunction ordering the use of a conventional ballot design, as is used in the other 49 states, in the Democratic primary in June. That injunction shifts power away from those who design the ballots - and toward those voters who cast the ballots.

Read the decision here, the expert report here, and the New York Times story.

Update, 3/30/2024, 11:00pm: Judge Quraishi, in response to Morris County Republicans, says his preliminary injunction applies only to the Democratic primary. Republicans are free to continue using the county-line system - for now.