A voter-centered approach to donation

Using analytics to center the voter, not the candidate.

Small donors give from the heart. In most cases, the information they have comes from candidates and friends, not from the hard data analytics that are available to candidates and partisan operatives.

But what if individuals had access to the same kind of hardnosed analysis that campaign strategists did? They could then optimize their approach, targeting resources where they would make the most difference.

Today I will show you how Vote Maximizer puts that power in your hands, no matter what your party - and even if you don’t belong to any party.

Centering the voter

I don’t know about you, but I get a lot of requests to donate to campaigns. Influencers are asking me to give to their favorite candidates. But I am careful about how I evaluate their requests. So should you.

Partisan operatives seek to maximize their ability to run a campaign, which generally means raising as much money as possible. If your giving is driven by your feelings and you like the candidate, then you are well-aligned and you can help them out. But ultimately, to them you are a source of money. To their farmer, you are the milk cow.

A prime example of donors getting milked is the 2020 Kentucky Senate candidacy of Democrat Amy McGrath. She ran against Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a figure widely reviled by Democrats. Despite the fact that McConnell led her in surveys by a median of 10 points, which by modern standards is insurmountable, McGrath raised an astounding $90 million. That money could have gone to closer Senate and House races around the nation. Spent in Kentucky, it may as well have been lit on fire. McGrath lost by almost 20 points.

Similarly, Republicans are also wasting their money when they donate to opponents of people they hate, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Her Republican opponent is presumably having very little trouble raising funds. However, I hope they have employment lined up for after the election.

The Moneyball approach

If your goal is to produce the maximum possible leverage, how should you target your donations? You wouldn’t donate to certain winners - or certain losers. And you might be inclined to donate to races in smaller states, or even individual districts.

Vote Maximizer answers this question using mathematical analysis. It asks the question, how much difference in probability arises from moving one or a few votes? It takes each close race, calculates per-vote leverage in each of them, and presents you with relative voter power.

Vote Maximizer also presents you with ballot initiatives that can change policies, and even democracy itself, for years to come. Examples include abortion-rights initiatives, ranked-choice voting, and an anti-gerrymandering initiative. You can look up all of these things in an interactive map.

Use Vote Maximizer to find synergies

Because Vote Maximizer takes a data-driven, multi-level approach at multiple levels of government, it can reveal unexpected synergies. It’s possible to have your donation work at multiple levels at once. Voters who turn out for one vote will usually fill out the rest of the ballot. Issues and policies you care about one level are typically correlated between races.

Here are two states where Vote Maximizer comes up with some unusual recommendations. Note that these are based on current polls, and may change between now and Election Day.

Nebraska: Two knife-edge races in one small state

Nebraska’s finest, the Runza.

Vote Maximizer has identified a Senate race with unusual leverage: Nebraska (link to Princeton Election Consortium article). In four recent surveys, independent candidate Dan Osborn lags incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer by a median of only 2 points. Combined with Nebraska’s small population, the per-vote power in Nebraska is currently the highest of any Senate race in the country, 100.

But Nebraska also has a swing Congressional District, the Second, which includes Omaha. Vote Maximizer uses the 2020 Presidential and 2022 House election results to estimate a per-voter power of 76. (As an added bonus, Nebraska assigns three of its electoral votes based on the popular vote in each Congressional district, so this swing district may also affect the Presidential race.)

In short, a powerful move would be to give to the Nebraska Senate candidate or the candidate in the Second Congressional District. In either case, helping in one race is likely to help with the other race as well. One of the races, the Senate campaign, is risky, sure. But you are hedged by the fact of working on the other race.

And on top of the federal races, two abortion-rights initiatives are on the ballot. Nebraska is one of ten states with abortion-rights initiatives on the ballot this fall. And with national support for abortion at an all-time high of 63%, such an initiative has a chance anywhere in the U.S.

States with reproductive-rights initiatives on the ballot. From Vote Maximizer.

Arizona: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

When it comes to different ways voters have power this November, Arizona takes the cake. Of course it’s a presidential swing state (per-vote power = 76). It also has two competitive congressional districts (First and Sixth Districts, with per-vote power of 83 and 80), thanks to the work of an independent redistricting commission. But that is not nearly all.

To improve the long-term health of Arizona democracy, a ballot proposal, Proposition 140, would do away with partisan primaries. Instead, voters would have a single all-party primary, followed by a ranked-choice general election. This reform, called Top Four, has been enacted in Maine and Alaska. It empowers all voters and has potential to reduce extremism. Arizona would be the third state to adopt it.

Also on the ballot is Proposition 139, which would override an old, pre-statehood law that the state Supreme Court interpreted to ban abortion. This has created a political firestorm. While abortion is currently still legal in Arizona, Proposition 139 would make that legalization permanent.

But legislative elections bring an even greater synergy.

Control of the state House and Senate could go in either direction, and seats are up for election in every district. As it turns out, one legislative district overlaps with a competitive congressional district.

Arizona’s overlapping Sixth Congressional and 17th Legislative Districts.

Under the assumption that working at one level will affect other levels as well, an especially powerful place to work is Arizona 17th legislative district (voter power = 61). That district, which is mostly in Pima County. overlaps heavily with the Sixth Congressional District, which you can see by looking at Vote Maximizer or in Dave’s Redistricting App. Putting a few volunteers and some resources into that legislative race would be a good move.

This example is amazing, but it is not unique. Montana, Nevada, and Michigan are also quite juicy. Near me in New Jersey a similar synergy happens across the river, in Pennsylvania’s Seventh and Eighth Congressional Districts. If you want to see an assortment of races where per-vote leverage is unusually high, take a look at this ActBlue for Democrats, or this WinRed for Republicans.

Feel free to leave comment today listing your favorite high-voter-power candidate or issue which could be added. To help your browsing, here is a full list of 25 states there are multiple high per-vote-power races or key ballot initiatives.

I encourage you to play with Vote Maximizer to see what it can do for you!

Support Vote Maximizer

And now, I have an ask for you.

The Electoral Innovation Lab created Vote Maximizer to be free to all. Now the Lab wants to improve its features, continue to maintain it, and put it into as many people’s hands as possible. But we need your help.

If you’d like to enhance Vote Maximizer’s reach, consider supporting the Electoral Innovation Lab. Supporting the Lab is highly cost-effective: where a House and Senate campaign costs tens of millions of dollars, the Lab operates on a smaller scale. Your donation will go quite far - and be amplified across all the other users of Vote Maximizer.