I think your 3 percent is a decent estimate of the number of actual never-Trumpers.
For demographic change, I think of Ruy Teixeira missed projections.
For example, in California the electorate is increasingly opposed to affirmative action in college admissions. Affirmative action went down 57/43 in 2020 after having gone down 55/45 in 1996. During that time, non-Hispanic whites fell from being a majority to being 35% of the population. But the Hispanic and Asian-Americans that replaced them are more opposed to affirmative action than the whites were.
Does that indicate less tolerance of democratic party values? Not to look at elected officials. But it is worth keeping an eye on.
I think your 3 percent is a decent estimate of the number of actual never-Trumpers.
For demographic change, I think of Ruy Teixeira missed projections.
For example, in California the electorate is increasingly opposed to affirmative action in college admissions. Affirmative action went down 57/43 in 2020 after having gone down 55/45 in 1996. During that time, non-Hispanic whites fell from being a majority to being 35% of the population. But the Hispanic and Asian-Americans that replaced them are more opposed to affirmative action than the whites were.
Does that indicate less tolerance of democratic party values? Not to look at elected officials. But it is worth keeping an eye on.