Two reasons: Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads Mike Rogers (R) by a median of 6 points, and Michigan has a relatively large population. Mathematically, moving a vote does not affect the fact that this appears to be a likely Democratic win, and not on a knife edge.
I'm confused as to why the Michigan Senate seat doesn't appear to be part of your analysis.
Two reasons: Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads Mike Rogers (R) by a median of 6 points, and Michigan has a relatively large population. Mathematically, moving a vote does not affect the fact that this appears to be a likely Democratic win, and not on a knife edge.
For a full list of voter power metrics, see https://election.princeton.edu/the-race-for-congress/
Huh. Weird that Cook still has it labeled as a "toss up."
They are smart people but they are a lagging indicator. They will catch up.
Thank you for all your great work!