Introducing...Vote Maximizer

An app that maximizes your power to preserve democracy in 2024.

Last week I wrote about the Democracy Moneyball principle, which builds on the idea that the power of one vote varies from state to state. Today, as a free bonus for all subscribers to Fixing Bugs In Democracy, I’m pleased to give a sneak preview of a tool that allows you to maximize that power wherever you are. It’s called Vote Maximizer.

Vote Maximizer is a product of the Electoral Innovation Lab. Vote Maximizer identifies races and ballot questions that maximize your individual power to preserve and enhance democracy. The Lab built the Vote Maximizer app using three principles: (a) find competition where (b) stakes are high and (c) per-voter leverage is highest.  They used mathematical and political analysis to identify where your vote, time, and contributions have maximum leverage. Vote Maximizer will also have continuing real-time updates between now and Election Day.

Importantly, EIL does all of this on a nonpartisan basis. Partisan actors will not always tell you when a race is hopeless - or when victory is certain. In such races, a few more votes or dollars do not change the outcome. They also want you to give to campaigns that are already overfunded, where your pennies will be lost in the flood. Campaign operatives want to maximize impact - but also their income.

A better place to put your effort is where there is competition - where a few votes, or a few dollars, may make the difference between winning and losing.

Vote Maximizer identifies key elections according to the following priorities:

Coattails - and reverse coattails. All eyes are on the Presidential race. We live in an age of close elections - five of the last six Presidential elections were decided with national popular-vote margins of five points or less. But not all votes cast in the Presidential election are equal.

Because of the Electoral College, votes have different levels of power depending on whether they are in swing states. The Lab used mathematical voter power calculations that I first developed at the Princeton Election Consortium to identify states and districts with greatest per-voter power. This can happen for Presidential, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House races - and in each case, control in 2024 is in the balance.

Turning out the vote at one level will have effects on races at other levels. For example, based on voting history and polls, Nevada is a swing Presidential state, a close Senate race, and several close Congressional races. Turning out one voter for any of these races will have effects on the other races. In other words, your vote will have both coattails and "reverse coattails."

Voting rights and direct democracy. The Supreme Court has become hostile to voting rights. Instead, look to states, which are the laboratories of democracy. In states, voters can express their wishes in two ways: through state legislatures (representation), and through ballot initiatives (direct democracy). We have identified key races in both categories.

Key state legislatures. In ten states, control of the state legislative process is at stake. Fair districting has opened up new opportunities. For example, in Wisconsin, the end of an extreme gerrymander this year has opened the way for majority rule for the first time in over a decade. 

You can help put checks and balances in place. When different parties control the governorship and the legislature, bipartisan cooperation is mandatory. Sometimes breaking a supermajority can create that balance, as is possible in Kansas, where the governor is a Democrat, and Nebraska, where the governor is a Republican. 

In the states we have identified, competitive legislative races will make all the difference. Since a state legislative campaign usually costs less than 10% of a competitive Congressional race, your effort and donations will go far. 

Ballot initiatives. All over the country, ballot initiatives can expand democracy - or curtail it. Redistricting reform, open primaries, and ranked-choice voting are all on the ballot. Some states such as Alaska may roll back these important reforms. Vote Maximizer lets you help shape these outcomes to preserve and strengthen democracy.

In addition, ballot initiatives can enact the popular will where legislatures will not act. To see ballot initiatives, pick a state and then find the pulldown menu to see options regarding voting rights and other important topics.

This year, reproductive rights are prominent: nine states have ballot initiatives that will expand or curtail access to reproductive care.

Election skeptics. Finally, in dozens of state and local elections, the winners will have a key role in administering elections and counting votes. The United States has developed a robust system for the fair counting of votes. However, this system is at risk. Vote Maximizer identifies state and county races where at least one "election skeptic" is on the ballot.

Use Vote Maximizer - and support the Electoral Innovation Lab

Give Vote Maximizer a try. It’s in beta-test version, for Fixing Bugs In Democracy subscribers. We want your input! Send us your thoughts through this form, or write to maximizer (at) electoral-lab.org.

Also…please consider contributing to the Electoral Innovation Lab. EIL needs support for Vote Maximizer to keep real-time data updates going, add features, and improve the user interface.

For donations over $5,000, we recommend giving by check, ACH, wire or transfer of securities. For assistance, please contact admin@electoral-lab.org.