Best estimates are that many political questions are on a knife edge right now: the Presidency, control of the U.S. Senate, and control of the U.S. House, not to mention 10 state legislatures, abortion rights in 10 states, and improvements (and degradation) of the democratic process itself in 10 states. If you care about democracy, you should find ways to maximize your efforts over the coming month. No pressure!
As it turns out, there are opportunities in the greater New York area to optimize your efforts to the utmost. There are dozens of competitive congressional and legislative districts within two hours of New York City where New Jerseyans have a chance to increase their influence this November. On the banks of the Delaware River alone are enough ballot items to determine control of Congress, a state legislature, and the Presidency itself. Here, your canvassing can play up to four roles.
New Jersey’s competitive race: the Seventh Congressional District
The Jersey side of the river has one competitive race: the Seventh Congressional District. Two years ago, Republican Tom Kean Jr. unseated Tom Malinowski in the Seventh District, which sprawls across the western part of the state. This year, longtime activist Sue Altman is the Democratic nominee. All indications are that this race will be decided within a few points. Because the district is large and distances are relatively large, those who wish to stay close to home will have plenty to do.
Pennsylvania: Everything, everywhere, all at once
Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania side of the river has a triple or even quadruple opportunity. There, turning out votes provides an exceptional opportunity for personal leverage.
It is well known that Pennsylvania is a key swing state for the presidency. Using methods that I’ve developed over the years to model presidential elections at the Princeton Election Consortium, I have estimated how likely a few votes are to be pivotal in the overall outcome. The core concept is that although we don’t know how the election will turn out, we can estimate voter influence using Bayesian methods. Here, “Bayesian” is a fancy statistical term for turning uncertainty into an estimate of what may happen in the future. Current polls in Pennsylvania show a tie, more or less, with Trump leading Harris by one percentage point. At the moment, this translates to a per-voter power index of 80 out of a maximum possible 100 (which is in North Carolina). Presidential per-voter power in all the states is updated regularly here.
Compare these numbers with my puny vote here in New Jersey, whose power is less than 1. Truly, a jerseyvote is the Weimar Deutschmark of 2024. Despite this sad situation, New Jerseyans can make it up to themselves by making like George Washington and crossing the Delaware.
Turning out a Presidential vote in Pennsylvania may also move the United States Senate. It appears that next year‘s Senate will have 47-52 Democrats/Independents, and 48-53 Republicans. In Pennsylvania, Democratic incumbent Senator Pat Casey is only two points ahead of his challenger, Dave McCormick. Because Pennsylvania has a large population, its voters are less influential in the Senate than in Nebraska. (For those seeking to make a difference via donation, that Nebraska race features independent candidate Dan Osborn in a close race against Republican incumbent Deb Fischer.) But in Pennsylvania, canvassing efforts for President still have dual influence.
Next comes the House of Representatives, which offers an unexpected jackpot. All three congressional districts on the Pennsylvania side of the Delaware are competitive this year. Each one of them voted for either Biden or Trump in 2020 by a margin of five points or less. Congressional races, which track national politics reasonably well, will be similarly close. In the Seventh and Eight Congressional Districts (Lehigh, Northampton, Monroe, and Pike Counties) from Lehigh and Easton northward, turning out voters will be exceptionally powerful. Combined with the somewhat less competitive District 1 (Bucks County) and the New Jersey 7th District, these four seats alone could determine control of Congress in 2025.
A deep cut: the Pennsylvania legislature
Finally, here is a a secret treasure): the Pennsylvania state legislature. Based on VEST data and Princeton Gerrymandering Project analytics, both chambers of the legislature escaped were drawn fairly and with considerable competition. It is likely that whichever party gets more votes has a good chance of ending up in control in Harrisburg.
Amazingly, pretty much every state House district along the Delaware River is competitive:
Specifically, we’re talking about House districts 29, 115, 136, 137, 138, 142, 143, 144, 145, 170, 176, 178, 189. Read about them at Vote Maximizer’s Pennsylvania page (in the dropdown menu, choose “State lower legislature.”
Not just Jersey
The Electoral Innovation Lab has curated pivotal ballot questions all over the nation: federal and state races, as well as reproductive rights and even democracy itself. In 38 states and the District of Columbia, over 80% of the U.S. population has pivotal power this year. Find an opportunity to get involved near you. In addition to canvassing, you can also donate to candidates you favor.
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Hi Sam:
The x axis (truncated at 150) on the Today's Median graph (here: https://election.princeton.edu/presidential-race/) makes it hard to eyeball, understand, interpret.
Me eg, at the moment I want to eyeball "who's got best chances of a tidal-wave sweep?" But that's just an example. Thanks for listening.