Nebraska Rising

The biggest bargain of the 2024 election, for the cost of a few runzas

Nebraska’s finest: the runza.

Nebraska voters have considerable power, both nationally and locally. Some of you know about Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which is both a swing district and, because of Nebraska law, could award an electoral vote to either major Presidential candidate. But there’s more.

Nebraska also has ballot initiatives that concern the legal status of abortion and cannabis. And its legislature is on the edge of losing a supermajority, which would lead to more bipartisan governance. To see everything happening in Nebraska, see its Vote Maximizer page.

Today, I will mostly focus on a reason to take note of Nebraska that has largely slipped under the national press’s radar: an unexpectedly close Senate race.

Democrats’ elusive 50th Senate seat…in Nebraska?

According to conventional political wisdom, Democrats and independents face an uphill battle in retaining control of the United States Senate. This year, 42 Democratic/Independent seats are either not up for election or are safe. In the 11 races that are close, Democrats lead in 7 of them - but to get to 50 seats and possible control, they need to win at least 8.

If one arranges the races in order of polling margin, a few races pop out as critical.

Polls in the Nebraska race are the closest of the lot. They show independent Dan Osborn leading incumbent Republican Deb Fischer by a nonsignificant 1-point margin. That is a closer race than marquee races in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, or Ohio. Consequently, in Nebraska, an individual person’s vote, as well as canvassing to move those votes, is at least 12 times as powerful than in those larger states. It’s a perfect demonstration of the Democracy Moneyball principle.

The idea of Democracy Moneyball used to call to mind Montana, which for months was considered by both parties to be the critical seat. That made it a target for money and the most expensive Senate race in American history, about $100 million so far. Still, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester seems to have slipped behind. Montana may now be somewhat less attractive as a target for canvassing or donations.

The surprising Dan Osborn

Osborn’s current 1-point lead is rather amazing, considering that in 2018, Fischer won re-election by 19 points. What’s going on?

Dan Osborn is an interesting candidate. He’s a steamfitter by trade, and became well known in 2021 for leading a successful strike at a Kellogg’s plant in Omaha. This year he competed for the Democratic Senate nomination – which he then turned down. Walking away from the Democratic Party is probably good for one’s reputation in Nebraska. And he’s gotten the support of the Legal Marijuana Now Party (LMN), which has ballot access in Nebraska but withdrew its candidate to make way for Osborn.

In contrast, Senator Fischer is pretty low-profile. She has not made much news during her time in the Senate. She did not cast aspersions on the honest conduct of the 2020 Presidential election, which distinguished her from her election-denier colleagues. That might make her a bit bland by current Republican standards.

In one survey, when respondents were read Osborn and Fischer’s biography, Osborn jumped to a 53%-39% lead. So his upside potential is considerable. Still, independents in Great Plains states face a tough road. In the 2014 Kansas Senate race, Greg Orman ran as an independent and kept things close, as I wrote at NewYorker.com at the time, but faltered at the end. We will find out in November if the more working-class Osborn will finish more strongly.

Nebraska has exceptional per-dollar power

The per-vote power for an Osborn or Fischer supporter is quite high. Using the power index in use at Vote Maximizer, Nebraska has nearly the highest per-vote power in the nation, because of the closeness of the margin and because so few votes will be cast. Only 930,000 people voted there in 2020. The only state with higher per-vote power is Nevada, which currently defines the 100-point range on Vote Maximizer’s scale.

When one factors in campaign costs, the advantage of donating in Nebraska is even higher. Nebraska media costs, listed in the table below as GRPs, are quite low. Consistent with that, in 2018, the major candidates in Nebraska’s Senate race spent less than $9 million. Compare that with the $118 million spent in Florida. This means that Nebraska is a good place for donors on either side to put Senate contributions.

Estimated value of canvassing (per-vote power) and donations (per-dollar power) based on recent polls and media costs. The price of reaching every voter in a state once is defined as 100 GRPs. Per-vote power was calculated as described in Democracy Moneyball.

You can convert this insight into donations through these sites for Democrats and  for Republicans.

Analytics beyond Nebraska

This is just one example of how analytics can identify optimal strategies in 2020. Vote Maximizer provides this kind of information all over the nation. It also provides information about democracy reforms (gerrymandering reform, ranked-choice voting), reproductive rights, and key races that can tip the balance of federal or legislative power.

Help make this kind of information available to as many voters as possible in November by supporting Vote Maximizer.

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