Sam, how do you view the proposed redistricting of Prop 50 in California? If, it passes, would California still have a 'B' on its report card? Has it been graded?
Do you think supporters of redistricting reform should focus on getting a bill passed in Congress that would require every state to draw its House districts by an independent commission?
It seems as if gerrymandering can only truly be remedied at the national level, though I realize that getting a reform bill through both chambers of Congress (and then signed into law) would be difficult right now.
Sam, great article. Thanks for factoring in state electoral geographies. Although I would love to see indy commissions in every state to generate more , it will be hard to get Congress to enact a law that creates more districts that are expensive to defend. Establishing firm guardrails on red-blue seat distributions per state (including electoral geography) is definitely needed.
Partisan gerrymanders can present an opportunity to turn the tables. Create enough of a swing of voting sentiment and the assumptions behind the gerrymander about how the voters will vote will crumble. This could be especially true in the sorts of extreme gerrymanders the MAGAs are planning. In an extreme gerrymander the partisan margins have to be thinned to form large numbers of districts supposedly favoring the gerrymanderers. The quest for extra seats actually makes mores seats vulnerable to swing the other way. IF the supposedly minority party is strong enough to seize the chance and swing the middle toward themselves.
Given all the challenges associated with winner take all district elections and drawing fair districts (40% of House seats are from States with D or F scores). Should we consider moving to a mix of district and at large representatives from each State to effectively ensure that partisan gerrymandering can be nullified?
Note to everyone, before the comments start...
Generally, please comment on any specific grade *after* you have looked at the detailed report card at gerrymander.princeton.edu.
If your comment is predicated on whether a particular state has proportional representation...Lord, that's what this whole essay is meant to prevent!
Sam, how do you view the proposed redistricting of Prop 50 in California? If, it passes, would California still have a 'B' on its report card? Has it been graded?
Do you think supporters of redistricting reform should focus on getting a bill passed in Congress that would require every state to draw its House districts by an independent commission?
It seems as if gerrymandering can only truly be remedied at the national level, though I realize that getting a reform bill through both chambers of Congress (and then signed into law) would be difficult right now.
Feels like one has to be ready to work on different time scales.
2025: prevent backsliding, or at least minimize it. for example, allow CA, limit damage in OH and FL, then stop.
2026-2028: continue to work for independent commissions in individual states. for example AR, IL, OH.
2029+: if Congress/President become sane, then push through a national law. This may also involve a change in how SCOTUS views voting rights.
Sam, great article. Thanks for factoring in state electoral geographies. Although I would love to see indy commissions in every state to generate more , it will be hard to get Congress to enact a law that creates more districts that are expensive to defend. Establishing firm guardrails on red-blue seat distributions per state (including electoral geography) is definitely needed.
*generate more competition
I'm a little confused on the score for the New Jersey map.
If you go to the actual page for New Jersey's map (https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-report-card/?planId=recyezT2QySsz1rgX), you'll see that the bars for proportionality, competitiveness, and county splitting show that map getting a C. It gets an F for compactness.
How, then, does the New Jersey map score an A?
You're reading the NJ map wrong. Mouse over it for the fair range. Also, see the rubric for the role played by compactness and competition.
The same rubric is applied to NJ and all other states. We have to work on the display some to make it easier to read.
Partisan gerrymanders can present an opportunity to turn the tables. Create enough of a swing of voting sentiment and the assumptions behind the gerrymander about how the voters will vote will crumble. This could be especially true in the sorts of extreme gerrymanders the MAGAs are planning. In an extreme gerrymander the partisan margins have to be thinned to form large numbers of districts supposedly favoring the gerrymanderers. The quest for extra seats actually makes mores seats vulnerable to swing the other way. IF the supposedly minority party is strong enough to seize the chance and swing the middle toward themselves.
Given all the challenges associated with winner take all district elections and drawing fair districts (40% of House seats are from States with D or F scores). Should we consider moving to a mix of district and at large representatives from each State to effectively ensure that partisan gerrymandering can be nullified?