Stemming the gerrymandering tide
The fight is on.
Where available, states mentioned in this post are linked to a nonpartisan report card.
I have bad news and good news for you on the gerrymandering wars.
The bad news is that more states are entering the fray: this week, Missouri, maybe Indiana, and mayyybe New Hampshire.
Now, the good news: The partisan gains are getting so small that now there's more heat than light. This creates a path to stemming the tide, which we are following at the Electoral Innovation Lab.
Despite the most recent expansion in the front of the war, the only multi-seat offenses are the same: three to five seats for Republicans in Texas, and a counter-gerrymander of five seats by Democrats in California. The latest poll indicates that California voters who are required to approve the gerrymander are strongly in favor.
It is a clear partisan offense to deprive Republicans of representation in California. But voters appear to see balancing the offense in Texas as an urgent goal - provided that California returns to a citizen-based commission in 2030.
As reported today in The Downballot, pressure is building on New Hampshire to redraw its two-district Congressional map. This is an object lesson in how desperate the maneuvers have become. The existing Second District went for Harris over Trump by 2. The best outcome for Republicans is to convert this to a district that favored Trump by 7 points - and even that requires drawing an incredible gyre. New Hampshire doesn’t have many strongly Republican or Democratic areas. Since a 7-point district can easily stay Democratic in the current climate, this is a lot of disruption to New Hampshire - for little or no gain.
The story is similar in other states. Offenses in Missouri and Indiana will deliver, at most, one district each, and maybe not even that.
And in Utah, legislators are fighting a state court case that restores the citizen commission’s power. As Dave Daley and I wrote regarding Utah, the gain is so paltry that legislators are better off letting citizens do the work.
Gerrymandering produces small drops against an incoming tide
Consider this: Republicans can only afford to lose three seats in 2026 - more than that, and they lose control of the House. Yet the median swing in a midterm election is 13 seats, and forecaster Elliott Morris now thinks a swing of 20 seats or more is likely. Against this incoming tide, moving one seat is just one small bucketful. As you can see in the table above, even a slew of impending offenses is unlikely to overcome that tide.
But it does remove competition - and that’s bad for democracy.
At the Electoral Innovation Lab, we are highlighting the smallness of these gains as a reason to stand down. In data-based analytics like our deeply-researched report on Ohio, we’ve measured the disruption that comes from moving voters out of districts. In our estimation, it typically requires moving 30% of voters to achieve an appreciable partisan gain. That's hard on both voters and incumbent legislators. And as our analysis of Ohio and Texas shows, many states under single-party control are maxed out. Trying to squeeze out more seats would mainly bring a risk of backfiring on partisans, what is called a "dummymander."
Appealing to legislators’ fears is not the most noble of arguments. But it is one that can work. At the Electoral Innovation Lab, we don’t just use data. Cognitive science shows that fear can be a more powerful motivator than reason.
Short-term mitigation, long-term solutions
In the long-term, a more uniform solution is needed, such as Congressional legislation to establish citizen redistricting commissions in every state. Our comprehensive research demonstrates the power of these commissions.
We will be continuing this work - as well as showing how citizens can maximize their power in every state in 2026, using tools like Vote Maximizer. With fewer competitive districts, this kind of short-term action can help maximize the odds that we will have fair elections in 2026 and in the tough years ahead.
Help support the Electoral Innovation Lab
You can help us in this goal by supporting our work. Protecting and repairing democracy is a big job. Please consider supporting the Electoral Innovation Lab. Help us fix gerrymandering and other major bugs in our democracy!