Texas legislators bet the ranch
A Republican plan that gambles on 2024-level popularity and border voters
So, is it a Texas Jigsaw Massacre, or an episode of Desperate House Lines?
As of today, it looks like a little of both.
Texas Republican legislators have posted their first draft Congressional map. We can start to see (a) what they are gambling on, (b) how much they think they can gain, and (c) how much downside risk they are taking.
The draft map, presented by state Representative Todd Hunter (R), has the potential to bring Republicans 3 additional seats on top of their current gerrymandered map of 25 Republicans, 13 Democrats. That three-seat gain is close to what I suggested was the most they could hope for. For a state that voted 56% Trump, 42% Harris in 2024, at first blush that is an impressive feat of line-drawing.
However, this map could still backfire by nearly as many seats: under it, Republicans could also lose 2 seats.
One out of three Texans: Welcome to your new district!
Finally, this map moves nearly one-third of Texans into a new district. Based on 2020 Census data, 32% of people would be separated from the district they are in now. The need to woo unfamiliar voters, especially with more competition, will make a lot of work for Congressional candidates, especially Republican incumbents. It seems likely that running under this map will require tens of millions of dollars of increased campaign spending, compared to keeping the current map.
Betting that 2026 will be like 2024
The map appears to have been drawn under the assumption that Texans will vote like they did in 2024. You can tell because every district’s 2024 Presidential margin is more than 10 points.
Compare it with the distribution of 2024 Presidential vote under the current map:
However, 2024 was a high-water mark for Republicans. If that support ebbs significantly in 2026, especially among Hispanic communities, Republicans could win as few as 23 seats, two seats less than they have now. They are increasing their risk in the hopes of increased return.
In south Texas, the new draft map contains some aggressive moves. Five border districts, 23, 28, 34, 35, and now District 15 (which used to be a funny-looking district between San Antonio and Austin), have all been redrawn to reflect Trump's gains in this region. Two of the border districts were already competitive in their 2024 form, and are represented by Democrats Henry Cuellar (CD28) and Vicente Gonzalez (CD34). In Representative Hunter’s map, they would still be competitive; I think Republicans could well lose these, even in the new plan.
Consistent with what I wrote in The Texas Jigsaw Massacre, Republicans are looking for new districts in greater Houston (CD9) and Dallas-Fort Worth (CD32). Actually, I cannot really say where CD32 is, since it stretches most of the way to Louisiana.
If these Hispanic-rich districts swing back, the map becomes a "dummymander" - a gerrymander that backfires on its maker. In an election that is more like 2020, which is an 8-point swing from 2024 conditions, most of these will become winnable by Democrats:
The Senate 2018 results, in which Beto O’Rourke (D) came within 2.5 percentage points of Senator Ted Cruz (R), are on average an 11-point swing from 2024. Because of larger swings in south Texas, this map is even clearer in showing just how swingable border Hispanic communities are:
When you consider the distinct possibility that the 2026 election might go hard against Republicans, this can easily turn into a map that elects 23 Republicans, 15 Democrats - a loss of two seats. That’s probably not what its drafters had in mind.
In my estimation, this map has up to 7 ostensibly Republican districts with Congressional margins that could easily be less than 10 points: CD 9, 15, 23, 28, 32, 34, and 35. At least two of them (CD28 and CD34) could easily go Democratic in 2026.
Everything’s bigger in Texas
Overall, I would characterize this as a draft plan driven equally by ambition and by desperation. The ceiling performance for Republicans is higher - but it also provides more opportunities for Democrats. In short, my impression is that it doesn’t live up to the existential threat to fair elections in 2026 that we’ve been reading about.
But, the legislature does get to keep trying. To be continued…
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The redistricting needs to be seen as one tool in a toolbox that will certainly include other widespread efforts to suppress voter turnout, either by closing or limiting polling stations and "voter fraud" prevention measures aimed at limiting suffrage. We need to act under the assumption that the 2026 elections will not be free and fair.
Democrats should consider how low-information voters in gerrymandered Blue states could be displeased about having their voices squelched. Blowback from acting just as sleazy as Republicans must be factored in.
This is where we see what kind of political skill Texas Democrats can muster. It could be possible to play a weak hand well and still win. It's not like Texas Republicans are particularly interested in having their districts scrambled. Texas Republicans must also be aware that the public is not impressed with them bowing to Trump instead of taking care of business here in the state.