On Twitter, there seems to be something of a consensus that this is a pretty strong gerrymander with little risk, and that the new map gives Republicans in Texas three new House seats, even in a year like 2026. Also, please check your DMs on there!
I agree that it gains three seats under 2024 conditions...but I loaded the President 2020 and Senate 2018 data, and it doesn't look that strong to me. Tell me what I missed!
Election data from 2020 and 2018 is probably not ideal here, given that those were statewide races that were unusually close by Texas standards. Right now, in DRA, I'm using 2022 Congressional data (sort of a midpoint between the blue years of 2018/2020 and the red Texas wave of 2024), and Democrats would have won 11 House seats, with a chance of winning a 12th, but nothing really beyond that.
Basically, the sky isn't falling with the new map, and it's not going to even come close to changing the outcome of the midterms in 2026, but it's still effective at gaining Republicans a couple of House seats at no real cost.
I agree that Congress 2022 is useful, but it produces 13 Democratic districts, or 14 if one counts CD34 (which I would). So that's already potentially -1 for Republicans from the status quo.
I have little insight into how communities along the southern border think. Do we know that after all the events of 2025, they will stick with Republicans? Do they see it as a fulfillment of what they wanted? That would affect what I think will happen to CD15, CD35, and maybe CD23.
Texan here. The border districts are Tejano. These are the places where the border crossed them. They did not cross the border. Their family histories go back to the Spanish Empire, not just the Mexican Empire.
They are working-class, Catholic and with staunch family values. They are socially conservative. Unlike what national Democrats seemed to think, they don't necessarily identify with undocumented people. The mere fact that Republicans are prejudiced is not a deal-breaker for them.
They are for a strong border. It is their land and property which undocumented people traverse. They don't necessarily want to see people abused, but they do want law and order. I doubt they relish the idea of ICE grabbing them off the street just because of their ethnicity.
Until recently, these districts have been solidly Democratic because of working class economic issues and civil rights. They loved Bernie Sanders. And Trump is cratering on economic issues. Tejanos can see where he is going on their civil rights.
How they vote in 2026 is going to depend on whether Democrats will finally get smart, listen to them and regain their trust. Tejanos could come home to the Democrats. Mike Madrid has a lot of good insight and data on the Hispanic voter on his Substack.
Sorry if I miscounted the number of Democratic seats! Here's my overarching worry about the new map: being Texas, it could have a large enough impact that it makes it quite hard for Democrats to win the House in presidential years even if they win the House popular vote.
I think you're right that this map could backfire in midterm years such as 2026, but those are years when Democrats would likely win control of the House regardless. The strength of this new map is that it distorts the national House map to such a degree that in presidential years, Dems might really struggle to win control of the House, or now only be able to win with the narrowest majority.
Democrats should consider how low-information voters in gerrymandered Blue states could be displeased about having their voices squelched. Blowback from acting just as sleazy as Republicans must be factored in.
This is where we see what kind of political skill Texas Democrats can muster. It could be possible to play a weak hand well and still win. It's not like Texas Republicans are particularly interested in having their districts scrambled. Texas Republicans must also be aware that the public is not impressed with them bowing to Trump instead of taking care of business here in the state.
Here’s why I am asking the question. You mention CD 9 & CD 32 specifically. You include CD 35 as a border district, which it is not, but maybe you are counting it as one of the targeted seats. It should be because it no longer connects Democratic areas in Austin and San Antonio.
Then there are the two Democratically held border districts that Trump carried in ‘24 that the new map makes more Republican which you also remarked upon.
You say wrote the most Republicans would pick up is 3 seats. You remarked on 4 specifically (or five if you count CD35). That’s why I asked if the map weakens two Republican seats.
You state the best Republicans can expect to do is 28-10. Other sites suggest 30-8 (I included two links to detailed analysis below)
The future is uncertain, but we should know whether based on the ‘24 results Republicans have an advantage in 28 or 30 seats.
CD 28 and 34. Border Democrats ran ahead of Trump in 2024 by up to 13 points margin, and 2024 was probably a high-water mark. It depends on what Latinos there think. Also, their turnout is differentially worse in off-years.
P.S. Districts 9, 15, 23, 28, 34, and 35 can swing hard based on overall trends in off-year elections, as well as reversion of Hispanic support to Democrats.
Hi again Sam, you might have seen this already, but yesterday, The Downballot (a Substack that often writes about House races) did a very helpful analysis of the five Texas House seats that were redrawn to flip from Democrats to the GOP. They mention that the new map wouldn't put any current Republican incumbent in danger, which might be open to debate, but it's definitely worth checking out their post. Link below:
The redistricting needs to be seen as one tool in a toolbox that will certainly include other widespread efforts to suppress voter turnout, either by closing or limiting polling stations and "voter fraud" prevention measures aimed at limiting suffrage. We need to act under the assumption that the 2026 elections will not be free and fair.
On Twitter, there seems to be something of a consensus that this is a pretty strong gerrymander with little risk, and that the new map gives Republicans in Texas three new House seats, even in a year like 2026. Also, please check your DMs on there!
I agree that it gains three seats under 2024 conditions...but I loaded the President 2020 and Senate 2018 data, and it doesn't look that strong to me. Tell me what I missed!
Election data from 2020 and 2018 is probably not ideal here, given that those were statewide races that were unusually close by Texas standards. Right now, in DRA, I'm using 2022 Congressional data (sort of a midpoint between the blue years of 2018/2020 and the red Texas wave of 2024), and Democrats would have won 11 House seats, with a chance of winning a 12th, but nothing really beyond that.
Basically, the sky isn't falling with the new map, and it's not going to even come close to changing the outcome of the midterms in 2026, but it's still effective at gaining Republicans a couple of House seats at no real cost.
I agree that Congress 2022 is useful, but it produces 13 Democratic districts, or 14 if one counts CD34 (which I would). So that's already potentially -1 for Republicans from the status quo.
I have little insight into how communities along the southern border think. Do we know that after all the events of 2025, they will stick with Republicans? Do they see it as a fulfillment of what they wanted? That would affect what I think will happen to CD15, CD35, and maybe CD23.
Texan here. The border districts are Tejano. These are the places where the border crossed them. They did not cross the border. Their family histories go back to the Spanish Empire, not just the Mexican Empire.
They are working-class, Catholic and with staunch family values. They are socially conservative. Unlike what national Democrats seemed to think, they don't necessarily identify with undocumented people. The mere fact that Republicans are prejudiced is not a deal-breaker for them.
They are for a strong border. It is their land and property which undocumented people traverse. They don't necessarily want to see people abused, but they do want law and order. I doubt they relish the idea of ICE grabbing them off the street just because of their ethnicity.
Until recently, these districts have been solidly Democratic because of working class economic issues and civil rights. They loved Bernie Sanders. And Trump is cratering on economic issues. Tejanos can see where he is going on their civil rights.
How they vote in 2026 is going to depend on whether Democrats will finally get smart, listen to them and regain their trust. Tejanos could come home to the Democrats. Mike Madrid has a lot of good insight and data on the Hispanic voter on his Substack.
Thank you. This is useful baseline information.
I was more concerned with the question of what people in that region, on balance, are thinking and feeing *right now*.
Sorry if I miscounted the number of Democratic seats! Here's my overarching worry about the new map: being Texas, it could have a large enough impact that it makes it quite hard for Democrats to win the House in presidential years even if they win the House popular vote.
I think you're right that this map could backfire in midterm years such as 2026, but those are years when Democrats would likely win control of the House regardless. The strength of this new map is that it distorts the national House map to such a degree that in presidential years, Dems might really struggle to win control of the House, or now only be able to win with the narrowest majority.
What do you make of the reporting that suggests that Democratic states (CA, NY, IL, etc) will retaliate by significantly increasing their own gerrymandering? (i.e. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/30/texas-redistricting-california-newsom-retaliatory-congressional-maps/)
assuming no one manipulates the voting machines.
Democrats should consider how low-information voters in gerrymandered Blue states could be displeased about having their voices squelched. Blowback from acting just as sleazy as Republicans must be factored in.
This is where we see what kind of political skill Texas Democrats can muster. It could be possible to play a weak hand well and still win. It's not like Texas Republicans are particularly interested in having their districts scrambled. Texas Republicans must also be aware that the public is not impressed with them bowing to Trump instead of taking care of business here in the state.
You count 3 additional Republican seats. It seems like everywhere else I read counts 5 particularly Democratic seats that have been targeted.
Did 2 Republican seats get weakened such that you expect them to flip based on the 2024 map? If so, which ones and where are they located?
I feel that the piece is fully explanatory on this point.
Here’s why I am asking the question. You mention CD 9 & CD 32 specifically. You include CD 35 as a border district, which it is not, but maybe you are counting it as one of the targeted seats. It should be because it no longer connects Democratic areas in Austin and San Antonio.
Then there are the two Democratically held border districts that Trump carried in ‘24 that the new map makes more Republican which you also remarked upon.
You say wrote the most Republicans would pick up is 3 seats. You remarked on 4 specifically (or five if you count CD35). That’s why I asked if the map weakens two Republican seats.
You state the best Republicans can expect to do is 28-10. Other sites suggest 30-8 (I included two links to detailed analysis below)
The future is uncertain, but we should know whether based on the ‘24 results Republicans have an advantage in 28 or 30 seats.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/texasredistricting/
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/30/texas-redistricting-congressional-maps-house-republicans/
CD 28 and 34. Border Democrats ran ahead of Trump in 2024 by up to 13 points margin, and 2024 was probably a high-water mark. It depends on what Latinos there think. Also, their turnout is differentially worse in off-years.
Those seats are already held by Democrats.
Right. But if Democrats do keep those seats, they only get 10. Still down 3.
How do they get to 15 if it’s a great Democratic year?
Definitely answered in the original piece. Have to end this thread now
P.S. Districts 9, 15, 23, 28, 34, and 35 can swing hard based on overall trends in off-year elections, as well as reversion of Hispanic support to Democrats.
Hi again Sam, you might have seen this already, but yesterday, The Downballot (a Substack that often writes about House races) did a very helpful analysis of the five Texas House seats that were redrawn to flip from Democrats to the GOP. They mention that the new map wouldn't put any current Republican incumbent in danger, which might be open to debate, but it's definitely worth checking out their post. Link below:
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-texas-gop-unveils
Could be true, though note that CD15 and CD23 are close based on pre-2024 results.
The redistricting needs to be seen as one tool in a toolbox that will certainly include other widespread efforts to suppress voter turnout, either by closing or limiting polling stations and "voter fraud" prevention measures aimed at limiting suffrage. We need to act under the assumption that the 2026 elections will not be free and fair.