Most federal and state elections in the US take place in even-numbered years. However, three important exceptions come next week in New Jersey, Virginia, and California. These will give us important information that can get us ready for the 2026 election. Not just in the horseracey Democrat-versus-Republican way that most people want, but to help make sure we have fair and orderly elections at all.
Not just partisanship, but fair elections for everyone
Several reporters have asked me about next week’s election in partisan terms: who will win? What does it mean for Democrats? Framing the election in partisan terms is a natural impulse - but it is essential to take a broader view.
(If you must know, I expect pretty much everything to go in the direction of Democrats. New Jersey and Virginia elections typically go against the President’s party, and Trump, at this point in his term, is the least popular president in the history of polling. It appears that Proposition 50 in California is likely to win by about 20 points, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia by about 12 points, and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey by about 8 points.)
The rule of law is a principle that transcends party. Irrespective of party, democracy is predicated on the idea that it is possible for different candidates or parties to win an election, and that one sign of legitimate elections is the possibility that power can change hands. Many Americans, of any party and no party, feel that this basic right is under threat.
Restriction of voting, voter intimidation, and mid-decade redistricting are all ways in which the law and government authority can be used to take power away from voters. Any democracy-loving American would be right to oppose all of those maneuvers.
In the federalist system, people have a say over who governs them at the national, state, and local level. Currently, the national government is taking aggressive steps to upend the rule of law. Opposition at the other levels may help preserve that rule of law.
New Jersey: what’s on the line
The outcome of the gubernatorial and legislative elections does not seem to be in that much doubt. New Jersey is a Democratic state, the Republican Party is quite unpopular nationwide, and opinion polls show Sherrill-vs.Ciatarelli as running about 3 points more Democratic than Murphy-vs.-Ciatarelli. So all the conditions point in the same direction. Nonetheless, the implications for New Jerseyans are important.
In New Jersey, the governor is more powerful than in other states. Policies ranging from budget and taxation to immigration and business regulation all depend on the governor. She/he will also appoint the Attorney General, who is tasked with enforcing the laws. With the federal government using the law as an instrument of power against groups it dislikes, state-level governance takes on new significance.
Matt Platkin, the current Attorney General, has been assertive about immigrant rights, and reinforcing policies put in place by his predecessor, Gurbir Grewal. He also weighed in against the exclusionary county-line ballot format which was overturned last year, opening the way to new competition. And finally, he has banded together with other state attorneys-general to battle illegal federal actions in court.
Another example is vaccine policy, which the federal government is undoing. A compact among northeastern states includes a range from Pennsylvania to Maine and states in between (except New Hampshire). A Governor Ciatarelli would surely withdraw from that partnership, with effects on public health.
Voter suppression in New Jersey and California: practice for 2026?
In 2021, only 39% of registered voters in New Jersey cast a ballot in state elections. For that reason, these are turnout-driven elections. Therefore canvassing is an effective strategy: just get out the vote in your community.
However, the other side of the coin is that suppressing votes can also be an effective strategy. The Department of Justice is “monitoring” voting in two of those states: Passaic County in New Jersey, and five counties in California. For example, Passaic County’s population is 44% Hispanic. As pointed out by Dan Cassino speaking to the Gothamist, the possibility of a federal presence during voting could depress turnout.
It will be useful to see if mail-in voting makes a difference in maintaining turnout. So far in 2025, early voting and mail-in voting are coming in at a higher rate. If that is less true in Passaic County, then it’s a warning to voting rights advocates, and can help them prepare for a larger federal action in 2026.
Implications for 2026
Mid-decade redistricting is slowing down. The very likely passage of Proposition 50 in California is likely to hold the net change in power to a handful of seats for Republicans. This is probably not enough to affect who controls Congress in 2027.
However, it still matters, because crucial robustness is being taken out of the system.
Consider the following analogy. Mechanical clocks and watches are filled with flywheels, gears, and metal to help compensate against fluctuations in temperature, humidity, as well as mechanical vibration. In a nicely stable situation, when the watch is stable, these mechanisms don’t matter. But when the weather gets rough, then they come into play. (You can read more about these ideas in the classic book Longitude by Dava Sobel).
The acts of mid-decade redistricting do something similar. Texas and Missouri Republicans are eliminating competition in their Congressional delegations, and California voters are about to do the same, helping Democrats. More states may join, notably Ohio (see the Electoral Innovation Lab’s deep dive) and Florida. In each case, the playing field narrows.
For example, the stated goal of Proposition 50 in California is to counter a Republican-led gerrymander in Texas. But it will also reduce the number of competitive districts in California from 9 to just one - in Imperial and Riverside Counties. That district is already the target of this year’s DOJ action - and will likely be next year as well.
After the dust clears on this festival of gerrymandering, the 2026 political playing field will be narrowed to a few hundred counties for House, and a handful of states for Senate. That creates opportunity and vulnerability. On the positive side, turning out votes can make a difference in those key places. On the negative side, suppressing or intimidating votes can have profound effects on outcomes. With control of Congress in the balance, interference in voting rights - and defending against that interference - will be extremely important.
What you can do
It is worthwhile for good government groups to monitor what happens in Passaic County and in California. You can work with organizations such as the League of Women Voters to help the vote. You can also work with local civic organizations, whether Democratic, Republican, or neither, to help ensure that everyone can vote.
Finally, I suggest that you support the Electoral Innovation Lab. They are developing a tool to show where voter leverage is highest - and vulnerability is highest. Their work will build on the same math that powered last year’s Vote Maximizer. Consider supporting them.
So, the monitors in Passaic county will undoubtedly target Paterson. However, do we have any idea what the effect on turnout there will be? I don’t think anyone will be bothered in West Milford!
Any plans to try to study if there is an effect?