Great post, and I think you're absolutely right that electorally, Democrats are likely only going to gain a seat or two in Congress from the NY redraw. But in the context of 2024, when maybe only a dozen House seats at most will flip (House swings are usually more modest in presidential years), even a single extra seat from NY could prove pivotal. I'm obviously wearing my partisan hat right now, but if that extra House seat(s) has a nonzero chance of preventing a certain party from gaining full control of the federal government in 2025, then the redraw is significant.
Great post, and I think you're absolutely right that electorally, Democrats are likely only going to gain a seat or two in Congress from the NY redraw. But in the context of 2024, when maybe only a dozen House seats at most will flip (House swings are usually more modest in presidential years), even a single extra seat from NY could prove pivotal. I'm obviously wearing my partisan hat right now, but if that extra House seat(s) has a nonzero chance of preventing a certain party from gaining full control of the federal government in 2025, then the redraw is significant.