As someone who, like you, has spent a slice of his professional career arguing and writing in favor of independent citizen districting commissions, I find the current race to the bottom as depressing as you might. That said, democracy's at stake, so, like a lot of other folks, I'll defer my districting preferences 'til Rs recover their sense of fair play. (Not holding my breath, but I can still hope.)
Regardless, this is a really informative piece. Thanks for writing it.
Yes, yes, gerrymandering is terrible, depressing, blah blah, we all know this song!
The point today is to demonstrate how gerrymandering can go against self-interest. This is a novel argument, and one that can perhaps stop the Indiana Senate from doing the wrong thing.
I agree on all points. I also hope this moves the needle back toward rationality in Indiana. I have my doubts, for all the obvious reasons (primarily, but not only, fear of and fealty to Trump and the base).
The other possible contribution to a dummymander outcome in Indiana, Texas, and elsewhere, is the tendency for primary voters (especially Republican, and especially now) to nominate the most extreme candidates. You can imagine if the voter distribution in these new districts is less safe for Republicans than the existing map, Republicans would maximize their chances for victory by choosing safer, more centrist candidates. But we all know that Trump and MAGA will never let that happen. If an extreme candidate loses even a few extra percentage points by either alienating independents or causing moderate Republicans to stay home, that may be just enough to flip a few new districts to Democrats, further undoing any supposed gains.
I’ve been watching for your assessment of the effect of consistent swing toward Dems on the gerrymander palooza since after the Election Day results. Thanks for this great analysis. Wonder if any Hoosiers in IN Senate are paying attention? 😉
As someone who, like you, has spent a slice of his professional career arguing and writing in favor of independent citizen districting commissions, I find the current race to the bottom as depressing as you might. That said, democracy's at stake, so, like a lot of other folks, I'll defer my districting preferences 'til Rs recover their sense of fair play. (Not holding my breath, but I can still hope.)
Regardless, this is a really informative piece. Thanks for writing it.
Yes, yes, gerrymandering is terrible, depressing, blah blah, we all know this song!
The point today is to demonstrate how gerrymandering can go against self-interest. This is a novel argument, and one that can perhaps stop the Indiana Senate from doing the wrong thing.
I agree on all points. I also hope this moves the needle back toward rationality in Indiana. I have my doubts, for all the obvious reasons (primarily, but not only, fear of and fealty to Trump and the base).
This reminds me of my favorite gerrymandering toy, New Hampshire.
It has just two districts and is about PVI even.
The governors prefer two even districts in order to get attention during swing election years.
The legislature wants an R+10 and a D+10 such that the state will always have a senior rep of the party in power.
It is not obvious to me which is the better choice.
But Indiana may soon find out what it is like to be out in the cold ...
The other possible contribution to a dummymander outcome in Indiana, Texas, and elsewhere, is the tendency for primary voters (especially Republican, and especially now) to nominate the most extreme candidates. You can imagine if the voter distribution in these new districts is less safe for Republicans than the existing map, Republicans would maximize their chances for victory by choosing safer, more centrist candidates. But we all know that Trump and MAGA will never let that happen. If an extreme candidate loses even a few extra percentage points by either alienating independents or causing moderate Republicans to stay home, that may be just enough to flip a few new districts to Democrats, further undoing any supposed gains.
I’ve been watching for your assessment of the effect of consistent swing toward Dems on the gerrymander palooza since after the Election Day results. Thanks for this great analysis. Wonder if any Hoosiers in IN Senate are paying attention? 😉
Brilliant
Looks like Indiana state senators took the long view. 21/40 Republicans and 10/10 Democrats voted no. 31-19 defeat overall! https://www.indystar.com/live-story/news/politics/2025/12/11/indiana-redistricting-congressional-map-senate-vote/87715062007/