Great summary. The fundamental challenge with the Citizens Not Politicians proposal is that it needs some Republican support to pass, but it imposes strict proportionality in a red-leaning state with a significant geography bias, rather than giving the commission the flexibility to find the right balance between proportionality and a non-partisan draw. If Ohio continues to lean red, forcing proportionality will reduce the number of light red districts, exacerbating extremism.
Some quibbles on your technical content:
1) This states that the 11/2021 Ohio Congressional map was passed by the ORC when it was the state legislature
2) This report omits the fact that Ohio's current legislative partisan fairness standards include a Article XI.6A that many would interpret as commanding a partisan-blind draw, which conflicts with XI.6B's "closely correspond" implying (though not stating) a strict proportionality. From my personal experience in Ohio 2021, this contributed significantly to the impasse.
3) For a 54/46 Ohio 99-seat map, a partisan-blind draw would not average 53 - 59% GOP. It's closer to 63%. The responsiveness is about 2.0 and Ohio's geography bias is actually higher for a 99-seat vs. a 15-seat map.
4) Technically, Akron, Toledo and Dayton can be split Congressionally because they are in counties that do not exceed a Congressional district pop; Summit, Lucas and Montgomery Counties don't qualify for XIX.2B4.
Again, overall great in-depth look at this challenging state. -Geoff Wise
wish this could be enacted this year in 2023!!!!
Any maps enacted before 2024 would become immediately void after passage of this initiative. So that means new maps for 2026.
Great summary. The fundamental challenge with the Citizens Not Politicians proposal is that it needs some Republican support to pass, but it imposes strict proportionality in a red-leaning state with a significant geography bias, rather than giving the commission the flexibility to find the right balance between proportionality and a non-partisan draw. If Ohio continues to lean red, forcing proportionality will reduce the number of light red districts, exacerbating extremism.
Some quibbles on your technical content:
1) This states that the 11/2021 Ohio Congressional map was passed by the ORC when it was the state legislature
2) This report omits the fact that Ohio's current legislative partisan fairness standards include a Article XI.6A that many would interpret as commanding a partisan-blind draw, which conflicts with XI.6B's "closely correspond" implying (though not stating) a strict proportionality. From my personal experience in Ohio 2021, this contributed significantly to the impasse.
3) For a 54/46 Ohio 99-seat map, a partisan-blind draw would not average 53 - 59% GOP. It's closer to 63%. The responsiveness is about 2.0 and Ohio's geography bias is actually higher for a 99-seat vs. a 15-seat map.
4) Technically, Akron, Toledo and Dayton can be split Congressionally because they are in counties that do not exceed a Congressional district pop; Summit, Lucas and Montgomery Counties don't qualify for XIX.2B4.
Again, overall great in-depth look at this challenging state. -Geoff Wise
Thank you for the thoughtful comments.
Also thank you for flagging those points.