Sam, thanks for the timely update. Could you clarify "more votes" in "In the Assembly, if Republicans get more votes, they will win a majority 95% of the time. If Democrats get more votes, they will win a majority about 60% of the time." Is this assuming a uniform probability over the statewide vote being 46% Dem to 54% Dem? Or some sort of normal probability? And is Gov. Evers' map more symmetric or about as symmetric as a neutrally drawn map (per Daryl's analysis)?
The assumption is of uniform distribution. Doing more did not seem necessary.
In Tables 7 and 8 of the special masters' analysis can be found another way of estimating these probabilities. There they get 8/8 (100%) Republican majoritarian, 11/17 (65%) Democratic majoritarian. https://acefiling.wicourts.gov/document/uploaded/2023AP001399/760087#page=17
The Wilson score estimates on these probabilities are 94+/-6% and 64+/-11%, respectively.
In regard to symmetry, the PGP report card gives information that may help. https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-report-card/?planId=recDBtvHPqc5gq8RJ
Sam, thanks for the timely update. Could you clarify "more votes" in "In the Assembly, if Republicans get more votes, they will win a majority 95% of the time. If Democrats get more votes, they will win a majority about 60% of the time." Is this assuming a uniform probability over the statewide vote being 46% Dem to 54% Dem? Or some sort of normal probability? And is Gov. Evers' map more symmetric or about as symmetric as a neutrally drawn map (per Daryl's analysis)?