The problem with regurgitating whatever whining you hear in New Jersey politics is that you get things wrong a lot.
New Jersey is, in fact, not the only state to structure primary ballots like this. 1 in every 8 members of the state Senate elected to this term have won off the line, so it’s patently false to say no one has won off the line in decades and it doesn’t explain why candidates for local office win off the line all the time in NJ. And there is no study that shows the line confers a 30 point advantage. There is an unscientific review of one election that shows Congressional incumbents are popular among people registered with their party—the same survey shows, for example, that Congressman Pascrell did worse in places where he was on the line than he did in places that didn’t have a line; and it conveniently ignores things like a candidate won a Congressional primary off the line for a competitive seat in that same election.
I sincerely hope your law article wasn’t this poorly researched and that it at least attempted to grapple with what Thurgood Marshall did in Eu v. San Francisco. It is really, really dangerous to say state legislatures and courts have oversight of how political parties select and promote candidates for office, and cavalierly throwing out a three part test to invite that without really careful consideration is irresponsible.
The anonymous commenter also wrote: The study you're referencing reviewed federal elections in one year. There were five incumbents running for office in primaries that year. The difference on the line or off was an average of 3 percentage points. From there we get a generalization that the reason no non-redistricted Congressional incumbent has lost in 52 years on the line. She used five elections for federal office involving incumbents from one year and then just decided to throw in a bunch of other elections that didn't involve incumbents or state legislative elections or mayoral elections or even a control group from another state.
The problem with regurgitating whatever whining you hear in New Jersey politics is that you get things wrong a lot.
New Jersey is, in fact, not the only state to structure primary ballots like this. 1 in every 8 members of the state Senate elected to this term have won off the line, so it’s patently false to say no one has won off the line in decades and it doesn’t explain why candidates for local office win off the line all the time in NJ. And there is no study that shows the line confers a 30 point advantage. There is an unscientific review of one election that shows Congressional incumbents are popular among people registered with their party—the same survey shows, for example, that Congressman Pascrell did worse in places where he was on the line than he did in places that didn’t have a line; and it conveniently ignores things like a candidate won a Congressional primary off the line for a competitive seat in that same election.
I sincerely hope your law article wasn’t this poorly researched and that it at least attempted to grapple with what Thurgood Marshall did in Eu v. San Francisco. It is really, really dangerous to say state legislatures and courts have oversight of how political parties select and promote candidates for office, and cavalierly throwing out a three part test to invite that without really careful consideration is irresponsible.
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I do not think the real March Fong Eu, were she alive today, would care to see her name appear above such an insulting and inaccurate comment.
We have an article on this topic coming out soon with statistical analysis supporting the statements in Hayden's essay. For a preview, I encourage everyone to read the report of Julia Sass Rubin at New Jersey Policy Perspective, which reports primary data that Hayden and I used. https://www.njpp.org/publications/report/does-the-county-line-matter-an-analysis-of-new-jerseys-2020-primary-election-results/
MFE, despite your tone, I'd be glad to be in touch to understand your criticisms better and to see if we've missed anything. Please email me. -Sam
(Ms. Eu is a former Cal. Secretary of State.)
The real March Fong Eu, a staple of my childhood in California, died in 2017.
The anonymous commenter also wrote: The study you're referencing reviewed federal elections in one year. There were five incumbents running for office in primaries that year. The difference on the line or off was an average of 3 percentage points. From there we get a generalization that the reason no non-redistricted Congressional incumbent has lost in 52 years on the line. She used five elections for federal office involving incumbents from one year and then just decided to throw in a bunch of other elections that didn't involve incumbents or state legislative elections or mayoral elections or even a control group from another state.
Dear everyone, if you have something to say, feel free to reach me by email. If there is merit and it is civil, I will share it. SW