Direct democracy: Reproductive rights in 2024
Florida, Nebraska (Omaha), and eight other hotspots of voter leverage
When legislatures will not act on the popular will, or even oppose it, another avenue remains open, the ballot initiative.
In 2024, the clearest example of this is reproductive rights. Support for legal abortion is generally associated with Democrats. But that sentiment is also held by independents and Republicans as well, considering that 69% of Americans think abortion should be legal throughout the first trimester, an all-time high in Gallup surveys. When abortion is on the ballot, without a partisan label, it typically gets 10 to 15 points more support than Democrats’ typical vote share. In a notable example in 2022, an initiative to restrict abortion failed in Kansas, a Republican state.
This feeds into the gender divide, which across all age groups is 19-22 points. Consistently, women favor Harris over Trump by that much more than men. (The recent New York Times/Siena survey showing age-dependent differences is an outlier; see this review by John Sides.)
Surely salient to these voters is the Dobbs decision, which reversed Roe v. Wade and opened the way to restrictive local abortion laws. Today, abortion is banned entirely in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Furthermore, it is severely limited in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, Nebraska, and North Carolina. (We’ll get to the boldface states in a moment.)
In ten states (the ones indicated above in boldface, plus five more), voters will have the option whether to guarantee a right to abortion, overriding existing law:
In most of these states, a simple majority vote is enough for passage. Considering the popularity of reproductive rights in the United States, reaching this threshold seems highly likely. However, there are two major exceptions where marginal voters may have a lot of influence.
Florida’s Amendment 4 requires a 60% vote to pass
A few years ago, the Florida Legislature got voters to approve a constitutional amendment raising the threshold for future amendments to pass. Now the threshold is 60%.
Florida's Amendment 4, appearing on the November 5, 2024 ballot, would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution by prohibiting laws that restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect patient health, as determined by healthcare providers. The amendment would maintain existing parental notification requirements for minors seeking abortions. If rejected, current and future restrictions on abortion access would remain in place.
Various surveys show Amendment 4 above or below the 60% threshold. In this situation, turnout will be important.
Other initiatives include marijuana legalization and changing school board elections from nonpartisan to partisan.
Nebraska’s competing ballot initiatives
Perplexingly, Nebraska has two ballot initiatives concerning abortion.
Initiative 434 prohibits abortions after the first trimester and leaves open further restrictions.
Initiative 439 adds a right to abortion to the state constitution.
According to the Nebraska constitution, if both win, for provisions in it that conflict with the other one, the winner with more votes prevails. Undoubtedly, resolution would end up in the state Supreme Court.
Notably, Nebraskans have quite a few other reasons to vote:
A U.S. Senate seat that may be critical for control, and where the independent candidate Dan Osborn has a remarkably good shot at unseating incumbent Republican Deb Fischer. See my previous report.
A U.S. House seat, the Second District, which includes Omaha, is also competitive, and may end up being important for House control.
An electoral vote, in the same district, that matters for the Presidency.
Marijuana legalization and paid sick leave, both on the ballot.
A supermajority in the unicameral legislature, on the cusp.
Read about all of these at Vote Maximizer Nebraska.
So, Huskers, if you want to influence reproductive rights, the House, the Senate, the Presidency, and the unicameral, greater Omaha (all the way west to Wahoo) would be your optimal place to get out the vote. The forecast is sunny tomorrow, high of 72 F.
With that, I wish everyone in all of the above states a good and active weekend.