Two reasons: Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads Mike Rogers (R) by a median of 6 points, and Michigan has a relatively large population. Mathematically, moving a vote does not affect the fact that this appears to be a likely Democratic win, and not on a knife edge.
I would love to be able to donate through Apple because I want to give an anonymized email (so that Actblue doesn't spam me, like they tend to do.) How come is that not enabled?
I'm confused as to why the Michigan Senate seat doesn't appear to be part of your analysis.
Two reasons: Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads Mike Rogers (R) by a median of 6 points, and Michigan has a relatively large population. Mathematically, moving a vote does not affect the fact that this appears to be a likely Democratic win, and not on a knife edge.
For a full list of voter power metrics, see https://election.princeton.edu/the-race-for-congress/
Huh. Weird that Cook still has it labeled as a "toss up."
They are smart people but they are a lagging indicator. They will catch up.
Thank you for all your great work!
Two links for further reading: 1) A model of state power in the Electoral College. Scale these results by votes/states to compare to Moneyball: https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/spp-2021-0029/html 2) A great estimate of net partisan gerrymandering in the 2021-22 redistricting cycle: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2217322120
Thanks for again bringing the math to bear!
I would love to be able to donate through Apple because I want to give an anonymized email (so that Actblue doesn't spam me, like they tend to do.) How come is that not enabled?