Two reasons: Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads Mike Rogers (R) by a median of 6 points, and Michigan has a relatively large population. Mathematically, moving a vote does not affect the fact that this appears to be a likely Democratic win, and not on a knife edge.
I'm confused as to why the Michigan Senate seat doesn't appear to be part of your analysis.
Two reasons: Elissa Slotkin (D) currently leads Mike Rogers (R) by a median of 6 points, and Michigan has a relatively large population. Mathematically, moving a vote does not affect the fact that this appears to be a likely Democratic win, and not on a knife edge.
For a full list of voter power metrics, see https://election.princeton.edu/the-race-for-congress/
Huh. Weird that Cook still has it labeled as a "toss up."
They are smart people but they are a lagging indicator. They will catch up.
Thank you for all your great work!
Two links for further reading: 1) A model of state power in the Electoral College. Scale these results by votes/states to compare to Moneyball: https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/spp-2021-0029/html 2) A great estimate of net partisan gerrymandering in the 2021-22 redistricting cycle: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2217322120
Thanks for again bringing the math to bear!