I think you're right about the confusion. I had Carolyn Maloney as my rep for many years, and I liked her. The Special Master redistricting put her directly in competition with Jerry Nadler, and she lost to him, and the Dems lost a senior member of the House. I'm now represented by AOC, and I'm oay with that, but if the new redistricting puts me into yet ANOTHER Congressional district, I'll be mad.
I'm in Arizona, not NY. (I was born in Rochester, however). Having closely followed Arizona's independent redistricting cycle in 2011, my view is that there IS symbolic even if not tangible added value to having the NY IRC redraw Congressional lines now.
I appreciate Sam Wang's vigilance, calculations and perspective on redistricting.
The new map would, to many New Yorkers, feel more like it belongs to the people, not to the courts.
Great post, and I think you're absolutely right that electorally, Democrats are likely only going to gain a seat or two in Congress from the NY redraw. But in the context of 2024, when maybe only a dozen House seats at most will flip (House swings are usually more modest in presidential years), even a single extra seat from NY could prove pivotal. I'm obviously wearing my partisan hat right now, but if that extra House seat(s) has a nonzero chance of preventing a certain party from gaining full control of the federal government in 2025, then the redraw is significant.
I think you're right about the confusion. I had Carolyn Maloney as my rep for many years, and I liked her. The Special Master redistricting put her directly in competition with Jerry Nadler, and she lost to him, and the Dems lost a senior member of the House. I'm now represented by AOC, and I'm oay with that, but if the new redistricting puts me into yet ANOTHER Congressional district, I'll be mad.
I'm in Arizona, not NY. (I was born in Rochester, however). Having closely followed Arizona's independent redistricting cycle in 2011, my view is that there IS symbolic even if not tangible added value to having the NY IRC redraw Congressional lines now.
I appreciate Sam Wang's vigilance, calculations and perspective on redistricting.
The new map would, to many New Yorkers, feel more like it belongs to the people, not to the courts.
Great post, and I think you're absolutely right that electorally, Democrats are likely only going to gain a seat or two in Congress from the NY redraw. But in the context of 2024, when maybe only a dozen House seats at most will flip (House swings are usually more modest in presidential years), even a single extra seat from NY could prove pivotal. I'm obviously wearing my partisan hat right now, but if that extra House seat(s) has a nonzero chance of preventing a certain party from gaining full control of the federal government in 2025, then the redraw is significant.